Calm before the storm - 23.2.2012
US dollar
Markets obviously needed to take a break and realize the European events once again. Calm before the storm, so the current status of the foreign exchange can me determined determine market. The dollar consolidated in a narrow range - 79.10-79.30 against a basket of currencies on Wednesday. Weekening of the dollar in the in the medium term is not observed.
Euro
The easiest part of the Greek complex problems is solved, and the market will attend to more serious matters soon. Serious economic risks of the Euro zone, as well as a substantial increase in the balance of the ECB next week within LTRO-2 will keep pressuring on the single currency. At the same time, the low probability of the ECB rate cuts in the near future is able to support the euro. Rising prices for the Brent crude oil , denominated in euros, creating the risk of inflation and virtually eliminates the likelihood of decreased interest rates in the Euro zone. However, noting that the obvious difficulties for sustained economic recovery in the region, as well as the likelihood of additional restructuring of the Greek debt which may be required the future and the country's exiting from the euro zone in conciquence, the European currency is treated negatively.
Australian dollar
Australian dollar showed sharp negative trend, the reason are Chinese economy data released yesterday. China is feeling the effects of the crisis in the euro zjne. The published PMI, calculated by HSBC in February rose to 49.7 in comparison to 48.8 in January. The indicator of export orders fell to 47.4. It is the minimum value over the past eight months, as the European debt crisis hurts Chinese exporters. Chinese economy lowers the steam in the first quarter by all parameters and it affects the whole region.