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Arabica Coffee Technical Analysis - Arabica Coffee Trading: 2024-04-09
COFFEE Technical Analysis Summary
Below 207.84
Sell Stop
Above 212.79
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral |
| MACD | Sell |
| Donchian Channel | Sell |
| MA(200) | Buy |
| Fractals | Neutral |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
| Volumes | Sell |
COFFEE Chart Analysis
COFFEE Technical Analysis
The technical analysis of the COFFEE price chart in 1-hour timeframe shows #C-COFFEE,H1 is retracing lower toward the 200-period moving average MA(200) after hitting 16-month high yesterday. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 207.84. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 212.79. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high indicator, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - COFFEE
Coffee prices picked after the International Coffee Association (ICO) reported that global coffee exports rose in February. Will the COFFEE price continue rallying?
International Coffee Association (ICO) reported that global coffee exports rose +6.8% year over year in February to 11.33 million bags and total 2023/24 global coffee exports from October-February rose +11.1% over year to 56.2 million bags. Coffee export from Brazil also rose. Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee beans. Cecafe reported earlier that Brazil's arabica coffee exports jumped +36.5% over year in February to 2.806 million bags. Larger coffee exports are bearish for prices. At the same time, this year's El Nino weather effect on global coffee production is an upside risk for coffee prices. An El Nino pattern typically brings heavy rains to Brazil and drought to India, negatively impacting coffee crop production. The El Nino has brought drought to Vietnam's coffee areas this year, according to an official from Vietnam's Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change.
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