Daily Opportunities – 5 March 2021

First Friday of month and NFP ahead; besides that, we have a bustling calendar after FED chair Powell’s speech and OPEC+ meeting!

Yesterday:

• OPEC+ meeting ended with not increasing the supply in April, as they see more demand and need more recovery. WTI gained on that, and USOil rose 0.8% in early Asian season, top on huge increase of last days.
• FED Powell: "notable and caught my attention," After this comments from FED chair, with the very dovish tone and commitment to maintaining the ultra-easy monetary policy until the economy is "very far along the road to recovery," USD printed 0.8% gain in few hours, while in Asian season, and could hold the gain.
• US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 745K, less than 750K of expectation, however higher than 736K of last week, but Factory orders were much better, same as EU unemployment, which fell to 8.1% in January.

Day Ahead:

Today's calendar is so busy, but all about the US. In the EU season, Germany Factory orders will be in focus, and Housing data from the UK. What we have to care about the US data are:

• NFP numbers - Better than expected ADP data and past two weeks easing jobless claims put the positive NFP data in a stronger position.
• Unemployment rate - 6.3% unemployment rate is expected to stay at the same level.
• Average Hourly Earnings - Earning average expects to fall as lower-paid jobs getting back to work in cafes and restaurants, which brings the average lower.
• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count - Raising Oil price in past weeks makes the US production more reasonable, which supports the higher number of Rig Counts

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Intraday trading:

DXY: above PP at 91.40, OBV and Price line are flat, while RSI moves at 65. Above 20 EMA and under R1 at 91.85. Positive configuration. Higher Yields and positive US data can be supportive for R2 at 92.10

EURUSD: Under PP and 50 EMA (1.2000). OBV is flat, the same as price movement in the chart. Since there is a lack of data in the EU, pairing will depend on the DXY movement. Technical indicators supporting the downtrend, however, breathing above PP and [psychological level of 1.2000, will bring the 1.2038 (R1) in focus, while lower than this level, 1.1930 (S1) and 1.1900 (S2) are next targets.

NZDUSD: Price is flat, while RSI and OBV have positive figures, adding the volume with returning from the oversold area. If it can breathe 0.72210 (PP), higher prices at 0.7255 (R1) are available. On the flipside, 0.7150 and 0.7110, S1 and S2 can be the next targets.

XAUUSD: due to losing stocks and raising doubts on the market and central banks' reactions, correction is expected, especially before NFP data. PP at 1703 is a key point for the correction. Gold in general movement is in downtrend mod!

Stocks: Doubts in the market will support the NASDAQ back to recovery and tech stocks in the US market. USA100 currently trading above 20 EMA, under PP at 12,500 is negative configuration; however, correction is much likely above this level. In the US season, Apple and Tesla have an excellent chance to recover. Check the US data as well before entering any position.

Warning: Market opportunity does not mean the exact movement in the market; however, it is the analyst's personal idea bringing up the possible movements.