فرص السوق : الأسبوع 2026-10-02 - 2026-09-28

Core PCE last results were 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the year. Because Fed just raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% on Sep 16, analysts have agreed that there might be more increases in December, so traders reacted and Euro dropped below 1.1500 on the news and is now around 1.147-1.15.

What could happen

If inflation comes in 0.1% or lower, traders will buy back euros, and push EURUSD up. The first resistance is the 1.1534-1.1578 area, which used to be support and now acts as a resistance.

If Inflation comes in as expected EURUSD will bounce between about 1.1440 and 1.1535, so selling near the top and buying near the bottom of that range makes sense.

If inflation comes in 0.3% or higher, dollar will strengthen and EURUSD breaks below 1.1472. The next support is around 1.1355-1.1365.

Don't trade the first few minutes after the release, because price jumps around and the gap between buying and selling prices widens, especially at the end of the month, so it's safer to wait until the first 15 minutes have finished and see where the price settles.

Keep an eye on oil prices. Overall US inflation 3.7% is running well above core inflation 3.3%, and the gap is due to energy costs, so a big move in oil will affect the euro as much as the PCE number itself.