Market Sentiment


US dollar short bets rose to $11.57 billion from $10.88 against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to September 12 released on Friday September 15. US economic data were mixed as producer prices rose in August while retail sales declined 0.2%.

US dollar bearish bets rose to $10.88 billion from $10.26 against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to September 5 released on Friday September 8. 156 thousand new jobs were created in US in August of 2017, below a downwardly revised 189 thousand in July and lower than market expectations of 180 thousand.

US dollar bearish bets rose to $10.26 billion from $9.4 against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to August 29 released on Friday September 1. Economic data were weak during the week and Federal Reserve’s Chair Janet Yellen did not speak about future monetary policy at central bankers’ symposium in Jackson Hole.

US dollar net short bets rose to $9.4 billion from $8.84 against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to August 22 released on Friday August 25. Dovish minutes of Federal Reserve’s meeting eroded expectations of another rate hike this year.

US dollar net short bets fell to $8.84 billion from $10.23 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to August 15 released on Friday August 18. Inflation and retail sales increased in July pointing to continued growth of US economy.

US dollar net short bets rose to $ 10.23 billion from $4.21 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to August 8 released on Friday August 11. Dollar shorts bets rose despite a better-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls in July with strong economic data underpinning positive outlook for US economy.

Very positive labor market data for July came out in the US. The number of new Nonfarm payrolls amounted to 209 thousand, which is much higher than preliminary forecasts. The unemployment rate in the US fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in June. Currently, it is at a 16-year low. The labor market data, alongside with the inflation and GDP growth, are taken into account when deciding to raise the Fed rate. According to FedWatch futures, the probability of such an event this year again exceeded 50% after the decline to 44% before the publication of the labor market data. On this background, the US dollar index rose last week for the first time after a 3-week continuous decline. On Friday, August 11, 2017 the inflation data for July will be published in the US, which could affect the currency market dynamics.

The US Fed kept the interest rate at the level of 1.2%. Meanwhile, it was noted that the US economy is growing slowly, the inflation has not reached the target level of 2% yet, the labor market is stable. This information slightly disappointed investors. According to the FedWatch futures, the probability of the Fed rate hike in the current year fell less than 50%. The US dollar index dropped for the third consecutive week amid this news.

At a press conference according to the results of the ECB meeting, its president Mario Draghi announced a possible revision of the parameters of the current monetary policy towards tightening. Market participants expect the growth of the ECB rates next year. This gave an additional impulse for the weakening of the US dollar against the euro and other currencies.

US dollar net long bets slipped to $59 million from $76 million against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to July 11 released on Friday July 14. Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed policy makers plan to start reducing central bank’s holdings of Treasury bonds as economic data were mostly positive during the week with June nonfarm payrolls rising more than expected.

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