#C-COFFEE Price Forecast | The weather in Brazil can affect coffee prices | IFCM UAE

Technical Analysis #C-COFFEE : 2020-06-23

Recommendation for COFFEE:

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 100.5

Buy Stop

Below 93.5

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1572
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, Coffee: D1 pushed off long-term support and is trying to break the resistance line of the downtrend upward. A number of indicators of technical analysis formed signals for a further increase. We do not exclude a bullish movement if Coffee rises above the resistance line of the downtrend and the last upper fractal: 100.5. This level can be used as an entry point. We can set a stop loss below the Parabolic signal, the last lower fractal and long-term support line: 93.5. After opening the pending order, we move the stop loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of the trend. If the price meets the stop level (93.5) without activating the order (100.5), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that have not been taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

The strengthening of the Brazilian real triggered a surge in prices for Arabica coffee. Will the Coffee quotes continue to grow ?

The Brazilian real in 2 days strengthened by more than 3% against the US dollar. Such a tendency may contribute to a decline in coffee exports from Brazil. So far, the surge in coffee quotes looks speculative. Their further increase is possible if drought intensifies in the Brazilian coffee-producing region of Minas Gerais. Recall that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts an increase in world coffee production in the 2020/21 agricultural season to a record 176.1 million of 60 kg bags, which is 9.1 million more than in the previous season. Of this, an increase of 6.8 million bags, according to the USDA, should be provided by Brazil alone. Accordingly, the weather in this country may affect coffee quotes. The decrease in the estimates of the USDA and International Coffee Organization (ICO) of world coffee production and export in the 2019/20 season may be another positive factor. According to the ICO, the global coffee export from October 2019 to April 2020 already decreased by 3.8% to 72.8 million bags, compared to the same period in the previous season (2018/19).

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