fbOIL Price Forecast | OPEC + increases oil production | IFCM UAE

Technical Analysis OIL : 2020-08-03

Recommendation for WTI:

Sell
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 39

Sell Stop

Above 43

Stop Loss

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IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Sell
MACD Neutral
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Sell
Bollinger Bands Neutral

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, Oil: D1 is being traded in a narrow neutral range for almost 2 months. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for a decline. We do not rule out a bearish movement if Oil falls below the lower Bollinger band: 39. This level can be used as an entry point. We can set a stop loss above the last two upper fractals, the upper Bollinger line, the 200-day moving average line and the Parabolic signal: 43. After opening a pending order, we should move the stop loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most risk-averse traders, after the transaction, can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (43) without activating the order (39), it is recommended to delete the order: some internal changes in the market have not been taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Since August 1, 2020, OPEC + countries will increase oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Will oil quotes go down ?

On July 15, 2020, the OPEC + countries agreed to reduce the oil production limit from 9.7 million bpd to 7.7 million bpd from August 1. This means that the difference (or 2 million bpd) will additionally enter the world market. The real increase will be less, and will amount to 1.5 million bpd, as a number of countries such as Iraq and Nigeria have exceeded their oil production quotas in the past. In May, the overall OPEC + reduction quota was met by only 87%, bringing additional 1.26 million barrels per day to the world market. This did not prevent the growth in oil quotes. In June, the quota was met by 107%. The next increase in production, by another 2 million bpd, is expected only in early 2021, when the OPEC + production limit will be reduced to 5.7 million bpd. The continuation of the coronavirus pandemic may be another negative factor for oil prices. A number of countries are inclined to reintroduce quarantine, which will lead to lower demand.

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