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Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has dropped significantly. Investors were disappointed that inflation fell very slightly in April - to 8.3% y/y from 8.5% in March. At the same time, the profitability of U.S. 10-Year Bond over the past 10 days has fallen quite noticeably - to 2.8% per annum from 3.2%. An additional negative was the increase in the number of new unemployed (United States Initial Jobless Claims) for the week. However, the US dollar did not fall into the loss leaders due to the fact that the euro and the currencies of European countries felt even worse against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Norwegian krone weakened after negative Norway Goods Trade Balance data in April. In addition, a weak GDP for the 1st quarter was published there last week. Danish GDP in the 1st quarter also turned out to be worse than expected. The weakening of the Turkish lira is supported by high inflation (+70% y/y in April) amid the low rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (+14%). The Russian ruble continued to strengthen after Russia's decision to sell some natural raw materials for rubles. Strengthening of the Japanese yen was facilitated by good economic indicators. The increase in Japan Core Machinery Orders in March exceeded the forecast. Japanese exports continued to grow in April (+12.5% ​​y/y).

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has shown a strong growth. Investors expect the Fed to increase the rate to 1% from 0.5% at the May 4 meeting. US GDP fell in the 1st quarter of 2022 by (-1.4%). This happened for the first time since the 2nd quarter of 2020, since the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic. This negative has not yet prevented the strengthening of the US currency, as market participants hope for a resumption of economic growth in the next quarters of this year. The Japanese yen strengthened amid rumors of Bank of Japan foreign exchange interventions. On April 28, the USDJPY exchange rate exceeded 130 yen per US dollar for the first time in 20 years. This may cause concern to the Japanese authorities. The Russian ruble continued to strengthen after Russia's decision to sell some natural raw materials for rubles. The South African rand continued to weaken on the back of a downward correction in precious and non-ferrous metals. The currencies of the European countries of Poland and Norway weakened due to the continuation of the political crisis in Eastern Europe.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. Investors expect the Fed to increase the rate by another 0.5% at the May 4 meeting. Now the rate is 0.5% and looks very low against the backdrop of strong US inflation in March (+8.5% y/y). The Canadian dollar strengthened on the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hike to 1% from 0.5% last week. We note that in March, Canadian inflation reached 6.7% y/y and exceeded the forecast (+4.9% y/y). Theoretically, because of this, the rate hike could continue. However, the next meeting of the BoC will not take place soon - on June 1. The South African rand weakened amid poor economic performance. Inflation in South Africa reached 5.9% y/y. This is above the South African Reserve Bank rate, which is currently 4.25%. The next meeting of the bank will be on May 19. In addition, the decline in South Africa Mining Production by 6.4% m/m turned out to be worse than the forecast (-0.2% m/m). In general, against the background of the stabilization of the US dollar, there has been a slight decrease in prices for commodities. This had a negative impact not only on the South African rand, but also on the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has continued to rise and has updated a new 2-year high. Investors expect the Fed to increase the Fed rate by another 0.5% at the meeting on May 4. Now the rate is 0.5% and looks very low against the background of powerful US inflation in March (+8.5% y/y). A similar situation is observed in Britain. High inflation (+7% y/y) in March could also strengthen expectations of a Bank of England (+0.75%) rate hike. The increase in the price of US natural gas was supported by good demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the European Union after the imposition of sanctions on Russian pipeline gas supplies. The strengthening of the Russian ruble continued thanks to Russia's decision to sell natural gas and some other resources for rubles. The New Zealand dollar weakened despite the increase in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to 1.5% from 1%. Investors fear high inflation in New Zealand according to data for the 1st quarter of this year. They will be published on April 20th. In the 4th quarter consumer prices increased by 5.9% y/y. The Australian dollar weakened despite good labor market data for March.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has grown noticeably and has reached a new high since May 2020. This was supported by good data on the labor market for March (United States Nonfarm Payrolls). Investors are waiting for the Fed's rate hike (0.5%) immediately by another 0.5% at the next meeting on May 4th. The strengthening of the Russian ruble continued due to the decision of Russia to sell natural gas and some other resources for rubles. As a result, US natural gas showed good growth. The increase in world prices for liquefied natural gas and coal caused the strengthening of the Australian dollar. The growth leaders were also shares of the social network Twitter, which invited the famous businessman Elon Musk (the founder of Tesla) to its board of directors. The leaders of the fall were the euro and the currencies of European countries: the Danish, Swedish and Czech crowns, as well as the Polish zloty. This happened against the backdrop of an ongoing political crisis in Eastern Europe.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index fell within a 4-week neutral range. Investors are awaiting the publication of important data on the labor market for March United States Nonfarm Payrolls, which will be released on Friday, April 1st. The Russian ruble has been among the gainers for the 2nd week. This is due to the decision of Russia to sell natural gas and some other resources for rubles. Against this backdrop, gas and coal quotations continued to rise, which caused the China Shenhua shares to rise in price. The 3-week weakening of the yen was supported by the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy. However, some investors now do not exclude its tightening.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has increased. The main reason for this was the expectations of investors to raise the U.S. rate. The Federal Reserve at its May 4 meeting was still up 0.5% to 1%. According to CME FedWatch, there is a 68% chance of such an event happening. The leaders of growth are the currencies of the countries exporting commodities: the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, as well as the Norwegian krone. This is facilitated by the growth of commodity prices amid high inflation in developed countries.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has fallen. Investors found it insufficient to increase the Fed's rate from 0.25% to 0.5% at a meeting on March 16. Since the US inflation in February reached a maximum in 40 years and amounted to 7.9% y/y. The Russian ruble has strengthened thanks to Russia's counter-sanctions against Western countries. In particular, the Russian authorities introduced the mandatory sale of 80% of exporters' foreign exchange earnings, raised the rate to 20%, and also limited the circulation of cash currency in the country. The Canadian, New Zealand and Australian dollars strengthened against the backdrop of high world commodity prices. The Japanese yen weakened after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda expressed doubt that inflation will reach the target level of 2% y/y despite the rise in oil and other commodity prices. Recall that the Japan Consumer Price Index for February will be published on the morning of March 18 and on the same day a meeting of the Bank of Japan will be held. According to forecasts, inflation will be 0.3% y/y. Investors believe that such low inflation will not allow Bank of Japan to raise the rate (-0.1%) for a long time to come.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. Investors expect the Fed to raise rates at its March 16 meeting. At the same time, they are concerned about the continued growth of US inflation, which reached 7.9% y/y in February. The main world event continues to be the political crisis in Europe in connection with the war between Russia and Ukraine. Accordingly, shares of Russian companies and the ruble became the leaders of the fall again. The Turkish Lira has weakened due to the risks of a bad tourist season this year. A significant part of tourists at the seaside resorts of Turkey are citizens of Russia and European countries. The leaders of the strengthening are the currencies of commodity countries that are far from the European crisis: South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Among the growth leaders, wheat can be noted. Russia will stop the export of grain and sugar until 31 August 2022.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has risen strongly and hit a high since June 2020. The main world event was the political crisis in Europe in connection with the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. Accordingly, the top losers were the shares of Russian companies and the ruble. A noticeable weakening was also demonstrated by the euro and the currencies of Eastern European countries, which are located next to Ukraine: the Polish zloty and the Czech crown. Top gainers were commodities and oil. This caused the strengthening of the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

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