Weekly Top Gainers / Losers

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has remained almost unchanged. After the publication of economic statistics and statements by Federal Reserve representatives, investors believe that the Fed will maintain the interest rate at the current level of 5.25% at the upcoming meeting on June 14. The Australian dollar rose in anticipation of the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on June 6. Its rate stands at 3.85% with Australian inflation at 7% YoY in the 1st quarter of 2023. The Canadian dollar also rose in anticipation of the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting on June 7. Its rate stands at 4.5% with Canadian inflation at 4.4% YoY in April 2023. The Turkish lira continued to weaken after Recep Tayyip Erdogan's victory in the presidential elections on May 28. Previously, he pursued a soft monetary policy. The euro weakened due to a relatively moderate decline in inflation in May to 6.1% YoY from 7% in April. Market participants believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise the rate (currently 3.75%) by no more than 0.25% at the meeting on June 15. Note that this week various ECB representatives will be speaking almost every day.

Over the past 7 days, the US Dollar Index continued its rise. The main positive factor was investors' belief that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the next meeting on June 14. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike to 5.5% from the current level of 5.25% increased to 58.4%. It was only 25.7% a week ago. This week, the US will release many important economic data. On June 2, the United States Nonfarm Payrolls report will be published. The New Zealand Dollar weakened as investors believed that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate hike to 5.5% from 5.25% may be insufficient. Additional negative factors included a significant decline in New Zealand Retail Sales in the first quarter of 2023 (-4.1% y/y).

Over the past 7 days, the US Dollar Index has risen for the 3rd consecutive time. The main positive factor was investors' belief that the Fed will maintain the 5.25% interest rate not only until the September 20 meeting but even until the November 1 meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of keeping the rate (5.25%) in September has exceeded 50%. A week ago, it was only 32.5%. New Zealand Trade Balance in April 2023 turned into a surplus (+$0.427 billion) for the first time since May 2022, which contributed to strengthening the New Zealand Dollar. Japanese inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.5% YoY in April 2023, weakening the yen.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has risen and moved up from the neutral range it had been in for about a month and a half. The main positive was investors' belief that the Fed will keep the rate at 5.25% at least until the September 20 meeting. The South African rand weakened on weak statistics. South Africa Mining Production in March decreased by -2.6% y/y, for the 14th month in a row.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has slightly decreased within a neutral range of 102.3-100.7 points. United States Nonfarm Payrolls for April was so good (+253k) that investors now do not rule out a reduction in the Fed rate as early as July. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of such an event is estimated at 35.4%. Note that other American economic indicators have also been positive lately. At the next FOMC meeting on June 14, the rate is likely to remain at the current level of 5.25%. The rise of the Australian dollar was supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia raising the rate on May 2 to 3.85% from 3.6%. In addition, Australia has released good data on foreign trade and retail sales. Statistics in New Zealand were also moderately positive. The Swiss franc fell as investors do not rule out a reduction in the Swiss National Bank rate (1.5%). Swiss inflation in April reached an 11-month low of +2.6% y/y, thus approaching the Swiss National Bank's target level.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has again remained almost unchanged. Investors expect the Fed to raise the rate from 5% to 5.25% at the May 3 meeting. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of such an event is estimated at 86%. The dollar could be held back by weak preliminary growth of 1.1% q/q in the United States Gross Domestic Product in 1Q 2023 after rising 2.6% q/q in 4Q 2022. It was expected to increase by at least 2% q/q. The strengthening of the euro was supported by investors' expectations that the European Central Bank would immediately raise the rate by 0.5% to 4% from the current level of 3.5%. His meeting will be on May 4. The British pound rose in anticipation of an increase in the rate of the Bank of England at a meeting on May 11. The Australian dollar weakened as inflation fell to 7% y/y in 1Q 2023 from 7.8% y/y in 4Q 2022. Investors fear that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its rate at 3.6% at the May 2 meeting.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has remained almost unchanged. Investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates from 5% to 5.25% at its meeting on May 3. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of such an event is estimated at 88.6%. The Australian dollar has strengthened in anticipation of inflation data to be released on April 26, which could affect the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise interest rates (+3.6%) at its meeting on May 2. Inflation in South Africa rose by 1% m/m in March, lower than expected (+1.4% m/m), which contributed to the strengthening of the South African rand. Inflation in Japan in March was 3.2% y/y, higher than expected (+2.6% y/y). Japan's trade balance in March was negative (deficit) for the 20th consecutive month, which has led to a weakening of the yen.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued to decline. In March, consumer price growth slowed down. Inflation amounted to 5% y/y, the lowest since April 2021. At the same time, there was a noticeable decrease in United States Retail Sales by -1% m/m. American economic indicators contributed to the weakening of the dollar. Note that most investors still expect the Fed to raise the rate by 0.25% from the current level of 5% at the May 3 meeting. This is a support factor for the US dollar. The strengthening of the Swiss franc was supported by lower inflation (+2.9% y/y) and Switzerland Producer Price Index (2.1% y/y) in March. The Japanese yen weakened amid the Bank of Japan's announcement of plans to create a digital yen (central bank digital currency).

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued to decline and hit a 2-month low. On Friday, April 7, it slightly strengthened due to good data on the United States Nonfarm Payrolls labor market for March. The appreciation of the euro contributed to the unexpectedly good economic performance of Germany. In February, there was a large positive trade balance (+16 billion euros) there for the 2nd month in a row. In addition, Germany Industrial Production and Factory Orders exceeded forecasts. The strengthening of the Swiss franc was supported by an unexpected decline in inflation in Switzerland in March to 2.9% y/y. The Australian dollar weakened a bit as the Reserve Bank of Australia rate remained at the previous level of 3.6%.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued to decline but failed to update the previous week's minimum. A slowdown in the decline can be noted. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2023 showed that the US dollar index fell by -1.3%. In the fourth quarter of 2022, its decline was much greater and amounted to -7.7%. The strengthening of the Mexican peso was due to the Bank of Mexico raising its rate from 11% to 11.25%. This happened despite a decrease in Mexican inflation in February to +7.62% y/y, the lowest level since March 2022. The strengthening of the South African rand was due to the South African Reserve Bank raising its rate from 7.25% to 7.75%. This level is higher than South African inflation in February, which was +7% y/y. The strengthening of the British pound was due to UK GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022, which was +0.6% y/y. This was better than expected (+0.4%). The Japanese yen weakened against the backdrop of the risks of high inflation. In March, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index grew by +3.3% y/y, higher than expected (+2.7%).