US Federal Reserve System meeting to be held today - 1.2.2023

On Tuesday, the US dollar index fell slightly. The Conference Board United States Consumer Confidence Index (107.1) turned out worse than expected (109) in January. For 3 weeks the US dollar index has been trading in a narrow neutral range. It is possible that he will come out of it after today's Fed meeting. The rate is expected to increase to 4.75% from 4.5%. This morning came out weak data on the labor market in New Zealand for the 4th quarter. Unemployment rose to 3.4% from 3.3%. In China, Caixin Manufacturing PMI (49.2) was also weaker than expected. Today in the afternoon will be published preliminary inflation in the Eurozone for January. It may affect the dynamics of the euro, as well as tomorrow's decision of the European Central Bank regarding the rate change (2.5% now).

Bitcoin quotes for the 2nd week are in a narrow range around the psychological mark of $23,000. Individual altcoins, such as Polygon, Litecoin, Dogecoin and Cardano, enjoyed increased demand. They have risen in price by about 9-10% over the past 7 days.

Yesterday, the US stock market saw an increase in quotations. It can be assumed that the quarterly reporting season is more or less successful. In January of this year, the Nasdaq index rose by 10.7%. This is the highest increase since January 2001. The S&P 500's 6.2% gain was the biggest since January 2019. Yesterday's growth of US stock indices was supported by good reporting for the 4th quarter of Exxon Mobil (+2.2%), United Parcel Service (+4.7%), General Motors (+8.4%), PulteGroup (+9, four%). PayPal announced it was laying off 2,000 employees to cut costs, and its shares rose 2.3%. Today, quarterly reports from Meta Platforms, T-Mobile US, Altria Group and other major companies will be released in the US. In addition, important economic indicators on the labor market for January ADP Employment Change and JOLTs Job Openings for December will be published. They can help refine the outlook for the United States Nonfarm Payrolls official data due on Friday. US. business activity figures will also be released today. ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.

On Tuesday, oil prices rose. Market participants do not exclude the purchase of oil to replenish US reserves. The independent American Petroleum Institute reported an increase in US oil inventories for the week by 6.33 million barrels. This has been observed for the 5th week in a row. Among the additional positive factors, one can note the reduction in oil exports in January from Iraq and Nigeria. This resulted in OPEC+ production being 920,000 bpd below target in January. In addition, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 by 0.2% to 2.9% due to the acceleration of India and China. This could increase global demand for oil.

Natural gas in Europe continues to trade around $640 per 1,000 cubic meters on the ICE Dutch TTF. US gas quotes on the Henry Hub are around $2.7 mmBtu. This is at least 21 months. We can note a powerful rise in prices for certain agricultural products: sugar, coffee, beef.